Economics

Although empirical literature regarding the Phillips curve is sizeable enough, there is still no wide consensus on its validity and stability. The literature shows that the Phillips relationship is fragile and varies across countries and…

This study examines long-term mortality effects of combat exposure using the Vietnam War draft lottery as a quasi-experiment. We validate the lottery by analyzing combat fatalities, revealing that 1951-1952 cohorts had notably fewer…

This paper develops a general framework for identifying causal effects in settings with spillovers, where both outcomes and endogenous treatment decisions are influenced by peers within a known group. It introduces the generalized local…

Recent crises have increased concerns about supply security in sectors that are considered strategically important. The goal of sufficient domestic production capacities has motivated various forms of subsidies, tariffs and other…

In the housing market model introduced by Shapley and Scarf (1974), we propose a new axiom, local unanimity, that extends the unanimity condition widely used in social choice theory. It applies the unanimity condition to any subset of…

In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference with panel data. Instead of using panel data to adjust for differences in the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity between the treated and comparison groups, we instead use…

This paper investigates nonlinear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects and introduces a general framework for parameter estimation under potentially non-convex objective functions. We propose a computationally feasible…

This paper examines how institutional belonging shapes long-term development by comparing Spain and Uruguay, two small democracies with similar historical endowments whose trajectories diverged sharply after the 1960s. While Spain…

This paper develops a spatial-dynamic framework to analyze the theoretical and quantitative effects of a Land Value Tax (LVT) on urban land markets, capital accumulation, and spatial redistribution. Building upon the Georgist distinction…

I study how first sizable industry entries reshape local and neighboring labor markets in Puerto Rico. Using over a decade of quarterly municipality--industry data (2014Q1--2025Q1), I identify ``first sizable entries'' as large, persistent…

I introduce heterogeneity into the analysis of peer effects that arise from conformity, allowing the strength of the taste for conformity to vary across agents' actions. Using a structural model based on a simultaneous network game with…

I develop a tractable adverse-selection model comparing secured bank loans and bonds when both pledge collateral but differ in effective liquidation efficiency. A small wedge in recovery rates generates coexistence, a sharp bank-bond…

Artificial intelligence is simultaneously transforming the production function of human capital in schools and the return to skills in the labor market. We develop a theoretical model to analyze the potential for misallocation when these…

We develop pre-trained estimators for structural econometric models. The estimator uses a neural net to recognize the structural model's parameter from data patterns. Once trained, the estimator can be shared and applied to different…

Regression discontinuity designs have become one of the most popular research designs in empirical economics. We argue, however, that widely used approaches to building confidence intervals in regression discontinuity designs exhibit…

We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on…

This paper establishes an empirical baseline of public sentiment toward Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies across six European countries during the period 2006--2019, prior to the widespread adoption of generative AI systems.…

We take an axiomatic approach to the allocation of riparian water rights. We formalize ethical or structural properties as axioms of allocation rules. We show that several combinations of these axioms characterize focal rules implementing…

I analyze the risk-coping strategies of factory-worker households in early twentieth-century Tokyo. I digitized a unique daily longitudinal household budget survey conducted in Tsukishima, a representative manufacturing area, to examine how…

Labor unions influence economic outcomes not only through bargaining with employers over work contracts but also via political activities that can profoundly shape political systems. In unionized workplaces, they may mobilize and change the…