Economics

What was the origin of modern economic growth? Joel Mokyr has argued that self-sustained modern economic growth originated from a feedback loop between propositional (theoretical) and prescriptive (applied) knowledge, which turned positive…

This paper develops a real-time forecasting framework for the monthly real prices of four key industrial metals -- aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc -- whose demand is rising due to their widespread use in manufacturing and low-carbon…

International remittances represent a vital source of disaster adaptation finance for households around the world, yet their responsiveness to environmental disasters remains poorly quantified. We reveal a previously unmeasured global…

This paper studies preference aggregation under ambiguity when agents have incomplete preference relations due to imprecise beliefs. We introduce the "dual" of the Pareto principle, which respects unanimity among individuals, including…

The double machine learning (DML) method combines the predictive power of machine learning with statistical estimation to conduct inference about the structural parameter of interest. This paper presents the R package `xtdml`, which…

To model the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy, a novel discrete-time, uncertain, infinite time horizon, dynamic game model is developed, where the uncertainties of expectations are modeled by unknown nonlinear but quadratically…

Traditional auction theory posits that bid value exhibits a positive correlation with the probability of securing the auctioned object in ascending auctions. However, under uncertainty and incomplete information, as is characteristic in…

Time series prediction algorithms are increasingly central to decision-making in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, energy management, and economic planning. Yet, these systems often inherit and amplify biases embedded in historical…

This paper studies the axiomatic bargaining problem and proposes a new class of bargaining solutions, called coarse Nash solutions. These solutions assign to each problem a set of outcomes coarser than that chosen by the classical Nash…

We examine how railway expansion shaped Denmark's nineteenth-century economic transformation and the diffusion of civic engagement in the form of Grundtvigian institutions. Using a new parish-level panel (1,589 parishes) and a…

Network connections, both across and within markets, are central in countless economic contexts. In recent decades, a large literature has developed and applied flexible methods for measuring network connectedness and its evolution, based…

We consider the problem of social choice when transfers between agents are possible. This includes several canonical applications: public-good provision, management of a common resource, settlement of debts, and division of goods. The…

We study a sender-receiver model in which the receiver can commit to a decision rule before the sender determines the information policy. The decision rule can depend on the information structure chosen by the sender and the realized…

We derive asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when payoffs depend on a partially-identified parameter $\theta$ and the decision maker can use a point-identified parameter $\mu$ to deduce…

Each production establishment is assumed to have, at any given time, a unique combination of capital and labor (a Leontief function), but the aggregate output at that same time must still be modeled with a Cobb-Douglas function (or a CES,…

Political apathy and skepticism of traditional authorities are increasingly common, but social media creators (SMCs) capture the public's attention. Yet whether these seemingly-frivolous actors shape political attitudes and behaviors…

In this paper we investigate the causal impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System, a cap-and-trade scheme limiting greenhouse gas emissions of firms, on their environmental performance. Although previous studies have focused…

Lacking lifetime income data, most intergenerational mobility estimates are subject to lifecycle bias. Using long income series from Sweden and the US, we illustrate that standard correction methods struggle to account for one important…

We analyze the problem of optimal reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic control setting. The debt-to-GDP dynamics are modeled through a stochastic differential equation in which fiscal policy simultaneously affects both debt…

This paper develops a unified framework in which economic dynamics is treated as evolutionary process analogous to those studied in natural sciences, including physics. Using methods from gauge field theory and plasticity, we show that the…