Economics
Estimating the effects of long-term treatments through A/B testing is challenging. Treatments, such as updates to product functionalities, user interface designs, and recommendation algorithms, are intended to persist within the system for…
Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…
This paper studies causal inference with observational data from a single large network. We consider a nonparametric model with interference in both potential outcomes and selection into treatment. Specifically, both stages may be the…
This paper studies nonparametric identification and estimation of causal effects in centralized school assignment. In many centralized assignment algorithms, students face both lottery-driven variation and regression discontinuity- (RD)…
This paper proposes asymptotically distribution-free inference methods for comparing a broad range of welfare indices across dependent samples, including those employed in inequality, poverty, and risk analysis. Two distinct situations are…
The radio spectrum suitable for commercial wireless services is limited. A portion of the radio spectrum has been reserved for institutions using it for non-commercial purposes such as federal agencies, defense, public safety bodies and…
This article examines how legacy lending relationships shape the allocation of emergency credit under severe information frictions. Using a novel dataset linking Small Business Administration (SBA) loan records with Dun and Bradstreet…
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the largest targeted business support program in the United States, yet its firm-level effects remain contested. I link administrative PPP and SBA 7(a) records to a near-universe panel of U.S.…
The Peter Principle posits that organizations promoting their best performers risk elevating employees to roles where their competence no longer translates, thereby degrading overall efficiency. We investigate when this dynamic emerges and…
We examine whether team affinity differs across skill dimensions in team production. Using a novel nonparametric framework that accommodates task-level structure, role asymmetry, and latent affinity, we decompose team performance into…
Bahar and Hausmann (2025a) claim to find evidence against the hypothesis that oil sanctions on Venezuela lead to increased migration flows to the United States. We show that their findings derive from applying a nonstandard, misspecified…
Partial identification often arises when the joint distribution of the data is known only up to its marginals. We consider the corresponding partially identified GMM model and develop a methodology for identification, estimation, and…
This paper develops a continuous functional framework for treatment effects propagating through geographic space and economic networks. We derive a master equation from three independent economic foundations -- heterogeneous agent…
Economists often rely on estimates of linear fixed effects models produced by other teams of researchers. Assessing the uncertainty in these estimates can be challenging. I propose a form of sample splitting for networks that partitions the…
We develop a finite-sample optimal estimator for regression discontinuity design when the outcomes are bounded, including binary outcomes as the leading case. Our estimator achieves minimax mean squared error among linear shrinkage…
This paper studies if firms pay different types of bribes, and if corrupt bureaucrats have perfect information about resources of bribe-paying firms. We construct a model of corruption that allows for multiple informational scenarios in a…
Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard valued at $68.7 billion has drastically altered the landscape of the video game industry. At the time of the takeover, the intellectual properties of Activision Blizzard included World of…
Stochastic versions of recursive integrated climate-economy assessment models are essential for studying and quantifying policy decisions under uncertainty. However, as the number of state variables and stochastic shocks increases, solving…
Missing data is pervasive in econometric applications, and rarely is it plausible that the data are missing (completely) at random. This paper proposes a methodology for studying the robustness of results drawn from incomplete datasets.…
An economy-wide production network, manifested through monetary input-output coefficients, inherently destabilizes during the general equilibrium propagation of sectoral productivity shocks when substitution elasticities are non-neutral.…