Econometrics
Kusumegi et al. (2025) study whether researchers' preprint output rises after adopting large language models (LLMs), dating adoption as the first month in which at least one submitted abstract exceeds an LLM-detection threshold. We show…
I propose Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (NBPL) as a framework for uncertainty-aware treatment choice. I consider a decision-maker (DM) seeking to select an expected welfare-maximizing treatment rule using observable…
We study inference using trimmed least squares (TLS) and trimmed least absolute deviations (TLAD) estimators of \citet{honore_trimmed_1992} in censored two-period panel-data models with fixed effects. We show that the published asymptotic…
Incentives in experimental design are often misaligned: experimenters design and finance experiments to seek regulatory approval, while regulators seek to maximize social-welfare. We propose a framework to resolve this conflict, wherein…
Public procurement is vulnerable to error, fraud, and corruption, particularly as high transaction volumes overwhelm oversight. While research often focuses on tender-stage anomalies, post-award payment monitoring remains underexplored.…
State-dependent local projections (LPs) are widely used to estimate how impulse responses to exogenous aggregate shocks vary as a function of observable state variables, yet their causal interpretation remains unclear. We show that LPs…
Triple differences (DDD) is a workhorse quasi-experimental design in applied economics. But, under staggered adoption, its conventional three-way fixed-effects (3WFE) implementation inherits the interpretation issues now well understood in…
Enormous attention and resources are being devoted to the quest for artificial general intelligence and, even more ambitiously, artificial superintelligence. We wonder about the implications for methodological research that aims to help…
The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for constructing the counterfactual of a treated unit based on data from control units in a donor pool. Allowing the donor pool contains more control units than time periods, we propose a…
Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…
Although tractor services are increasingly used in the Ejura-Sekyedumase Municipality, access remains uneven, and some smallholder maize farmers still rely on labour-intensive production methods. This study investigated the profitability…
We derive the asymptotic theory of Bai (2009)'s interactive fixed effects estimator for unbalanced panels in which the source of attrition is conditionally random. For inference, we propose a method of alternating projections algorithm…
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian approach for local projection instrumental-variables (LP-IV) estimation. It builds a moment-based quasi-posterior using the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective and applies a roughness-penalty…
We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when…
Selecting the right electricity market region for a hyperscale AI datacenter requires reasoning across live electricity prices, grid carbon intensity, technology cost trajectories, and causal grid dynamics -- a multi-step, multi-source…
This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…
It has long been established that, if a panel dataset suffers from attrition, auxiliary (refreshment) sampling restores full identification under additional assumptions that still allow for nontrivial attrition mechanisms. Such…
This paper develops a difference-in-differences framework for staggered policy adoption when units can be affected by other units' adoption. For each treated cohort and event time, the framework separates the effect of own adoption, the…
Instrumental variables (IV) methods are central to applied microeconomics. While classical approaches assume linear models with constant effects, recent literature has shifted toward the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework to…
News media coverage of monetary policy is not a passive transcript of central-bank communication: it filters announcements, macroeconomic news, and editorial choices into narratives that move expectations and policy decisions. We embed…