Econometrics

Durable marriages are presumed to foster the household specialisation that marriage enables. We exploit a recent Dutch reform that temporarily lowered the cost of divorce while leaving consent requirements unchanged. We embed divorce…

This paper provides the first analysis of credit relationships between financial institutions and firms through the lens of hypergraphs. Unlike traditional network approaches, which rely on pairwise connections, this framework explicitly…

This paper proposes a network-adjusted generalized method of moments (NA-GMM) estimator for social interaction models when the observed network may differ from the true interaction network. NA-GMM is a novel penalized GMM approach that…

Confidence intervals that are conservative against an untestable bias, called bias-aware or honest, are now standard in DiD, IV, RD, and factor-model settings. This paper characterises the local power of the tests they induce. Power is…

A large literature in econometrics proposes decision rules with optimality guarantees based on ex ante criteria, such as minimax regret. We develop a framework for analyzing the dynamic consistency of such rules and show that, in many…

We derive the asymptotic properties of two-way fixed effects M-estimators with missing observations in an asymptotic framework in which the numbers of cross-sectional units and time periods grow jointly. We allow the selection process to be…

This paper introduces a new approach to econometric analysis of nonlinear panel data models when the number of observations per observational unit is small. In such models the presence of variables that are constant within, while varying…

We use the assisted own goal hypothesis as a lens into media measurement. A demand-generating (upper-funnel) advertising platform such as a short-video social network can cause an incremental purchase, yet see that purchase booked on -- and…

Economic policies rarely affect only their direct targets. To study these spillovers, researchers summarize who else was treated with a simple exposure measure, such as the share of treated neighbors within a radius. But for many settings,…

Synthetic difference-in-differences is widely used to estimate treatment effects for many treated groups against a common donor pool. When the same donors are reused across groups, the group-specific estimates are cross-sectionally…

Researchers often conduct inference on weighted estimands, defined as weighted averages of group-level effects. Example settings include event studies with cohort-level effects and experiments with site-level effects. Under heterogeneous…

This study proposes a formal, computationally efficient nonparametric omnibus test for treatment-effect heterogeneity that is compatible with a broad class of estimators, including modern machine-learning methods. The test is designed for…

This paper develops the asymptotic theory for high-dimensional panel data regressions in settings with cross-sectionally dependent errors driven by common shocks. We consider a factor-augmented sparse-group LASSO estimator that combines…

Macroeconomic forecasts refer to outcomes that are first released and then revised. A 90 percent interval for the first GDP release, a six-month value, or a latest-value benchmark is not the same uncertainty statement. We ask how revision…

This paper evaluates stabilization scenarios for Bolivia under external-financing stress by jointly modeling financial sustainability, verifiable social sustainability and the net additionality of multilateral financing. The main correction…

Integrated urban models (IUM) typically rely on a measure of accessibility or travel time to form the link between the transportation and land use systems. Such integration does not fully capture the trade-offs made by households in how…

This paper proposes to project and expand the conditional mean function of the structural error given the regressors in an endogenous regression under consideration. As the projection process is semiparametric, we define this procedure as a…

Global games theory provides a tractable framework for analyzing coordination problems with multiple equilibria, with regime overthrow serving as a canonical application. A large empirical literature on coups d'\'etat examines the…

This paper presents a computational approach to find an approximately minimax estimator for the classical Bounded Normal Mean problem. The suggested procedure is the Bayes estimator corresponding to an approximately least-favorable…

We characterize the asymptotic behavior of conventional variance estimators in linear regression with high-dimensional fixed effects under a drift in which both the proportional fixed-effect dimension $\rho_n = d_{K_n}/n \to \rho \in [0,1)$…