Econometrics

This paper investigates new ways of estimating and identifying causal, noncausal, and mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models driven by a non-Gaussian error sequence. We do not assume any parametric distribution function for the…

This study evaluates the macroeconomic effects of active labour market policies (ALMP) in Germany over the period 2005 to 2018. We propose a novel identification strategy to overcome the simultaneity of ALMP and labour market outcomes at…

This paper provides new insights into the asymptotic properties of the synthetic control method (SCM). We show that the synthetic control (SC) weight converges to a limiting weight that minimizes the mean squared prediction risk of the…

We design and implement an adaptive experiment (a ``contextual bandit'') to learn a targeted treatment assignment policy, where the goal is to use a participant's survey responses to determine which charity to expose them to in a donation…

This paper considers nonlinear dynamic models where the main parameter of interest is a nonnegative matrix characterizing the network (contagion) effects. This network matrix is usually constrained either by assuming a limited number of…

This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…

The properties of Maximum Likelihood estimator in mixed causal and noncausal models with a generalized Student's t error process are reviewed. Several known existing methods are typically not applicable in the heavy-tailed framework. To…

The von Mises-Fisher family is a parametric family of distributions on the surface of the unit ball, summarised by a concentration parameter and a mean direction. As a quasi-Bayesian prior, the von Mises-Fisher distribution is a convenient…

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that…

In this chapter we present an overview of the main ideas and methods in the fractional integration and cointegration literature. We do not attempt to give a complete survey of this enormous literature, but rather a more introductory…

The econometric literature on treatment-effects typically takes functionals of outcome-distributions as `social welfare' and ignores program-impacts on unobserved utilities. We show how to incorporate aggregate utility within econometric…

This paper studies a class of linear panel models with random coefficients. We do not restrict the joint distribution of the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. We investigate identification of the average partial…

Many econometrics textbooks imply that under mean independence of the regressors and the error term, the OLS parameters have a causal interpretation. We show that even when this assumption is satisfied, OLS might identify a pseudo-parameter…

Spillover of economic outcomes often arises over multiple networks, and distinguishing their separate roles is important in empirical research. For example, the direction of spillover between two groups (such as banks and industrial sectors…

This paper proposes a new class of heterogeneous causal quantities, named \textit{outcome conditioned} average structural derivatives (OASD) in a general nonseparable model. OASD is the average partial effect of a marginal change in a…

We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably…

Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…

It is commonly believed that financial crises "lead to" lower growth of a country during the two-year recession period, which can be reflected by their post-crisis GDP growth. However, by contrasting a causal model with a standard…

The relevance condition of Integrated Conditional Moment (ICM) estimators is significantly weaker than the conventional IV's in at least two respects: (1) consistent estimation without excluded instruments is possible, provided endogenous…

In this paper we study treatment assignment rules in the presence of social interaction. We construct an analytical framework under the anonymous interaction assumption, where the decision problem becomes choosing a treatment fraction. We…