English

The replacement number dynamics in SIR-type epidemic models I: From SSISS to RND picture

Populations and Evolution 2024-11-18 v2 Dynamical Systems Physics and Society

Abstract

In SIR-type epidemic models time derivative of prevalence II can always be cast into the form I˙=(X1)I\dot{I}=(X-1)I, where XX is the replacement number and recovery rate is normalized to one. Assuming X˙=f(X,I)\dot{X}=f(X,I) for some smooth function ff defines a "replacement number dynamics" (RND). Choosing transmission coefficients β1>β2\beta_1>\beta_2, any such system uniquely maps to an isomorphic "SSISS model", i.e. an abstract SIR-type 3-compartment model. Extending to negative values βi<0\beta_i<0 takes care of demographic dynamics with compartment dependent birth and death rates. Fixing ff and varying βi\beta_i generates a family of isomorphic SSISS systems, the "SSISS fiber" F(f)\cal{F}(f)}. A symmetry group GσG_\sigma acts freely and transitively on fibers F(f)\cal{F}(f), so SSISS systems become a principal GσG_\sigma-fiber bundle over the space of RND systems. Choosing two specific 6-parameter polynomials ff at most quadratic in (X,I)(X,I) covers a large class of models in the literature, with in total up to 17 (largely redundant!) parameters, including also reactive social behavior models. Epidemiological admissibility conditions guarantee forward boundedness and absence of periodic solutions in all these models. Part II of this work will prove existence and stability properties of endemic equilibria, which in RND picture simply boils down to analyzing zeros of the parabolas fI=0f|_{I=0} and fX=1f|_{X=1}. This will cover and extend well known results for a wide range of models by a unifying approach while also closing some open issues in the literature.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2410.19532,
  title  = {The replacement number dynamics in SIR-type epidemic models I: From SSISS to RND picture},
  author = {Florian Nill},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.19532},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

42 pages, 1 Fig., 8 Tables (Table 8 consisting of 15 figures)