English

The multi-allelic Moran process as a multi-zealot voter model: exact results and consequences for diversity thresholds

Populations and Evolution 2026-01-16 v1 Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems

Abstract

The Moran process is a foundational model of genetic drift and mutation in finite populations. In its standard two-allele form with population size nn, allele counts, and hence allele frequencies, change through stochastic replacement and mutation, yet converge to a stationary distribution. This distribution undergoes a qualitative transition at the \emph{critical mutation rate} μc=1/(2n)\mu_c=1/(2n): at μ=μc\mu=\mu_c it is exactly uniform, so that the probability of observing kk copies of allele~1 (and nkn-k of allele~2) is π(k)=1/(n+1)\pi(k)=1/(n+1) for k=0,,nk=0,\dots,n. For μ<μc\mu<\mu_c diversity is low: the stationary distribution places most of its mass near k=0k=0 and k=nk=n, and the population is therefore typically dominated by one allele. For μ>μc\mu>\mu_c, on the other hand, diversity is high: the distribution concentrates around intermediate values, so that both alleles are commonly present at comparable frequencies. Recently, the two-allele Moran process was shown to be exactly equivalent to the voter model with two candidates and α1\alpha_1 and α2\alpha_2 committed voters (\emph{zealots}) in a population of n+α1+α2n+\alpha_1+\alpha_2, where mutation is played by zealot influence. Here we extend this equivalence to multiple alleles and multiple candidates. Using the mapping, we derive the exact stationary distribution of allele counts for well-mixed populations with an arbitrary number mm of alleles, and obtain the critical mutation rate μc=1/(m+2n2)\mu_c = 1/(m+2n-2), which depends explicitly on mm. We then analyze the Moran process on randomly connected populations and show that both the stationary distribution and μc\mu_c are invariant to network structure and coincide with the well-mixed results. Finally, simulations on general network topologies show that structural heterogeneity can substantially reshape the stationary allele distribution and, consequently, the level of genetic diversity.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.09816,
  title  = {The multi-allelic Moran process as a multi-zealot voter model: exact results and consequences for diversity thresholds},
  author = {Dan Braha and Marcus A. M. de Aguiar},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.09816},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

37 pages, 7 figures