The Hot Hand in Professional Darts
Applications
2019-11-20 v2
Abstract
We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost one year of tournament data, corresponding to 167,492 dart throws in total, we use state-space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying ability, and we use autoregressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. We find a strong but short-lived serial dependence in the latent state process, thus providing evidence for the existence of the hot hand.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1803.05673,
title = {The Hot Hand in Professional Darts},
author = {Marius Ötting and Roland Langrock and Christian Deutscher and Vianey Leos-Barajas},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1803.05673},
year = {2019}
}