English

Takeover times for a simple model of network infection

Populations and Evolution 2017-07-19 v1

Abstract

We study a stochastic model of infection spreading on a network. At each time step a node is chosen at random, along with one of its neighbors. If the node is infected and the neighbor is susceptible, the neighbor becomes infected. How many time steps TT does it take to completely infect a network of NN nodes, starting from a single infected node? An analogy to the classic "coupon collector" problem of probability theory reveals that the takeover time TT is dominated by extremal behavior, either when there are only a few infected nodes near the start of the process or a few susceptible nodes near the end. We show that for N1N \gg 1, the takeover time TT is distributed as a Gumbel for the star graph; as the sum of two Gumbels for a complete graph and an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph; as a normal for a one-dimensional ring and a two-dimensional lattice; and as a family of intermediate skewed distributions for dd-dimensional lattices with d3d \ge 3 (these distributions approach the sum of two Gumbels as dd approaches infinity). Connections to evolutionary dynamics, cancer, incubation periods of infectious diseases, first-passage percolation, and other spreading phenomena in biology and physics are discussed.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1702.00881,
  title  = {Takeover times for a simple model of network infection},
  author = {Bertrand Ottino-Löffler and Jacob G. Scott and Steven H. Strogatz},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1702.00881},
  year   = {2017}
}

Comments

19 pages, 10 figures