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Statistical properties of volatility return intervals of Chinese stocks

Statistical Finance 2009-01-09 v1 Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Physics and Society

Abstract

The statistical properties of the return intervals τq\tau_q between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold qq are carefully studied. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test shows that 12 stocks exhibit scaling behaviors in the distributions of τq\tau_q for different thresholds qq. Furthermore, the KS test and weighted KS test shows that the scaled return interval distributions of 6 stocks (out of the 12 stocks) can be nicely fitted by a stretched exponential function f(τ/τˉ)eα(τ/τˉ)γf(\tau/\bar{\tau})\sim e^{- \alpha (\tau/\bar{\tau})^{\gamma}} with γ0.31\gamma\approx0.31 under the significance level of 5%, where τˉ\bar{\tau} is the mean return interval. The investigation of the conditional probability distribution Pq(ττ0)P_q(\tau | \tau_0) and the mean conditional return interval <ττ0><\tau| \tau_0> demonstrates the existence of short-term correlation between successive return interval intervals. We further study the mean return interval <ττ0><\tau| \tau_0> after a cluster of nn intervals and the fluctuation F(l)F(l) using detrended fluctuation analysis and find that long-term memory also exists in the volatility return intervals.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0807.1818,
  title  = {Statistical properties of volatility return intervals of Chinese stocks},
  author = {Fei Ren and Liang Guo and Wei-Xing Zhou},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0807.1818},
  year   = {2009}
}

Comments

8 pages, 8 figures