English

Scaling and memory of intraday volatility return intervals in stock market

Physics and Society 2008-12-02 v1 Statistical Finance

Abstract

We study the return interval τ\tau between price volatilities that are above a certain threshold qq for 31 intraday datasets, including the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the 30 stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial index. For different threshold qq, the probability density function Pq(τ)P_q(\tau) scales with the mean interval τˉ\bar{\tau} as Pq(τ)=τˉ1f(τ/τˉ)P_q(\tau)={\bar{\tau}}^{-1}f(\tau/\bar{\tau}), similar to that found in daily volatilities. Since the intraday records have significantly more data points compared to the daily records, we could probe for much higher thresholds qq and still obtain good statistics. We find that the scaling function f(x)f(x) is consistent for all 31 intraday datasets in various time resolutions, and the function is well approximated by the stretched exponential, f(x)eaxγf(x)\sim e^{-a x^\gamma}, with γ=0.38±0.05\gamma=0.38\pm 0.05 and a=3.9±0.5a=3.9\pm 0.5, which indicates the existence of correlations. We analyze the conditional probability distribution Pq(ττ0)P_q(\tau|\tau_0) for τ\tau following a certain interval τ0\tau_0, and find Pq(ττ0)P_q(\tau|\tau_0) depends on τ0\tau_0, which demonstrates memory in intraday return intervals. Also, we find that the mean conditional interval <ττ0><\tau|\tau_0> increases with τ0\tau_0, consistent with the memory found for Pq(ττ0)P_q(\tau|\tau_0). Moreover, we find that return interval records have long term correlations with correlation exponents similar to that of volatility records.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.physics/0511101,
  title  = {Scaling and memory of intraday volatility return intervals in stock market},
  author = {Fengzhong Wang and Kazuko Yamasaki and Shlomo Havlin and H. Eugene Stanley},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0511101},
  year   = {2008}
}

Comments

19 pages, 8 figures