Rethinking External Communication of Autonomous Vehicles: Is the Field Converging, Diverging, or Stalling?

As autonomous vehicles enter public spaces, external human-machine interfaces are proposed to support communication with external road users. A decade of research has produced hundreds of studies and reviews, yet it remains unclear whether the field is converging on shared principles or diverging across approaches. We present a multi-dimensional analysis of 620 publications, complemented by industry deployments and regulatory documents, to track research evolution and identify convergence. The analysis reveals several field-level patterns. First, convergence on a safety-first core: simple visual cues that clarify intent. Second, sustained divergence in necessity and implementation. Third, a progressive filtering funnel: broad exploration in research and concepts narrows in deployment and is codified by regulation into a minimal set of permitted signals. These insights point to a shift in emphasis for future work, from producing new prototypes toward consolidating evidence, clarifying points of contention, and developing frameworks that can adapt across contexts.