English

Reproduction matrix for an epidemic and lockdowns in a city

Physics and Society 2020-05-20 v1

Abstract

We consider an epidemic spreading in a city which is divided geographically into different districts. We introduce the reproduction matrix R=(R(i,j))\R=\bigl(R(i,j)\bigr) between districts, where R(i,j)R(i,j) is the mean number of individuals in district jj infected by an individual from district ii. We analyse policies of partial lockdowns of the city, that is of a set of districts, based on the study of matrix R\R, where rows and columns corresponding to districts in lockdown are set to zero. This schema can also be applied to a country divided into regions or other appropriate units, provided the relevant information is available. We conclude by analyzing a matrix~R\R which was constructed for the spread of COVID-19 in Santiago, Chile, with the aid of an agent-based simulator for generating surrogate district data.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2005.09556,
  title  = {Reproduction matrix for an epidemic and lockdowns in a city},
  author = {Vicente Acuña and María Paz Cortés and Andrew Hart and Servet Martínez and Juan Carlos Maureira},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.09556},
  year   = {2020}
}

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10 pages