English

Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals

Probability 2022-05-11 v1 Logic

Abstract

In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval [0,1][0,1]. We examine the iterated conditional (BK)(AH)(B|K)|(A|H), by showing that AHA|H p-entails BKB|K if and only if (BK)(AH)=1(B|K)|(A|H) = 1. Then, we show that a p-consistent family F={E1H1,E2H2}\mathcal{F}=\{E_1|H_1,E_2|H_2\} p-entails a conditional event E3H3E_3|H_3 if and only if E3H3=1E_3|H_3=1, or (E3H3)QC(S)=1(E_3|H_3)|QC(\mathcal{S})=1 for some nonempty subset S\mathcal{S} of F\mathcal{F}, where QC(S)QC(\mathcal{S}) is the quasi conjunction of the conditional events in S\mathcal{S}. Then, we examine the inference rules AndAnd, CutCut, CautiousCautious MonotonicityMonotonicity, and OrOr of System~P and other well known inference rules (ModusModus PonensPonens, ModusModus TollensTollens, BayesBayes). We also show that QC(F)C(F)=1QC(\mathcal{F})|\mathcal{C}(\mathcal{F})=1, where C(F)\mathcal{C}(\mathcal{F}) is the conjunction of the conditional events in F\mathcal{F}. We characterize p-entailment by showing that F\mathcal{F} p-entails E3H3E_3|H_3 if and only if (E3H3)C(F)=1(E_3|H_3)|\mathcal{C}(\mathcal{F})=1. Finally, we examine \emph{Denial of the antecedent} and \emph{Affirmation of the consequent}, where the p-entailment of (E3H3)(E_3|H_3) from F\mathcal{F} does not hold, by showing that (E3H3)C(F)1.(E_3|H_3)|\mathcal{C}(\mathcal{F})\neq1.

Cite

@article{arxiv.1804.06187,
  title  = {Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals},
  author = {Angelo Gilio and Niki Pfeifer and Giuseppe Sanfilippo},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1804.06187},
  year   = {2022}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T01:26:16.660Z