English

Iterated Conditionals and Characterization of P-entailment

Probability 2021-09-16 v2

Abstract

In this paper we deepen, in the setting of coherence, some results obtained in recent papers on the notion of p-entailment of Adams and its relationship with conjoined and iterated conditionals. We recall that conjoined and iterated conditionals are suitably defined in the framework of conditional random quantities. Given a family F\mathcal{F} of nn conditional events {E1H1,,EnHn}\{E_1|H_1,\ldots, E_n|H_n\} we denote by C(F)=(E1H1)(EnHn)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F})=(E_1|H_1)\wedge \cdots \wedge (E_n|H_n) the conjunction of the conditional events in F\mathcal{F}. We introduce the iterated conditional C(F2)C(F1)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_2)|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1), where F1\mathcal{F}_1 and F2\mathcal{F}_2 are two finite families of conditional events, by showing that the prevision of C(F2)C(F1)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_2)\wedge \mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1) is the product of the prevision of C(F2)C(F1)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_2)|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1) and the prevision of C(F1)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1). Likewise the well known equality (AH)H=AH(A\wedge H)|H=A|H, we show that (C(F2)C(F1))C(F1)=C(F2)C(F1) (\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_2)\wedge \mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1))|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1)= \mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_2)|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}_1). Then, we consider the case F1=F2=F\mathcal{F}_1=\mathcal{F}_2=\mathcal{F} and we verify for the prevision μ\mu of C(F)C(F)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F})|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}) that the unique coherent assessment is μ=1\mu=1 and, as a consequence, C(F)C(F)\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F})|\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}) coincides with the constant 1. Finally, by assuming F\mathcal{F} p-consistent, we deepen some previous characterizations of p-entailment by showing that F\mathcal{F} p-entails a conditional event En+1Hn+1E_{n+1}|H_{n+1} if and only if the iterated conditional (En+1Hn+1)C(F)(E_{n+1}|H_{n+1})\,|\,\mathscr{C}(\mathcal{F}) is constant and equal to 1. We illustrate this characterization by an example related with weak transitivity.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2109.04776,
  title  = {Iterated Conditionals and Characterization of P-entailment},
  author = {Angelo Gilio and Giuseppe Sanfilippo},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2109.04776},
  year   = {2021}
}