Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
Theoretical Economics
2022-09-27 v1 Probability
Statistics Theory
Statistics Theory
Abstract
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true state. This generalizes to notions of "optimism" about posterior probabilities.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2209.11601,
title = {Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism},
author = {Sergiu Hart and Yosef Rinott},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.11601},
year = {2022}
}