English

Peacocks nearby: approximating sequences of measures

Probability 2018-08-15 v2

Abstract

A peacock is a family of probability measures with finite mean that increases in convex order. It is a classical result, in the discrete time case due to Strassen, that any peacock is the family of one-dimensional marginals of a martingale. We study the problem whether a given sequence of probability measures can be approximated by a peacock. In our main results, the approximation quality is measured by the infinity Wasserstein distance. Existence of a peacock within a prescribed distance is reduced to a countable collection of rather explicit conditions. This result has a financial application (developed in a separate paper), as it allows to check European call option quotes for consistency. The distance bound on the peacock than takes the role of a bound on the bid-ask spread of the underlying. We also solve the approximation problem for the stop-loss distance, the L\'evy distance, and the Prokhorov distance.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1512.06640,
  title  = {Peacocks nearby: approximating sequences of measures},
  author = {Stefan Gerhold and I. Cetin Gülüm},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1512.06640},
  year   = {2018}
}