The novel Corona Virus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.
@article{arxiv.2005.12455,
title = {Modeling the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Population in Australia: A Probabilistic Analysis},
author = {Ali Eshragh and Saed Alizamir and Peter Howley and Elizabeth Stojanovski},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.12455},
year = {2021}
}