English

Maximally probable tree topologies with $r$-furcation

Combinatorics 2026-02-10 v1 Populations and Evolution

Abstract

For a specific rooted labeled tree topology, a labeled history is a sequence of branchings that give rise to that labeled topology as it unfolds over time. Here, for rr-furcating trees, we use a connection with Huffman trees from information theory to identify maximally probable rooted trees -- unlabeled rr-furcating topologies whose labelings each have a number of labeled histories greater than or equal to those of all other labeled topologies. Our characterization of the unique maximally probable rr-furcating unlabeled topology generalizes the Harding--Hammersley--Grimmett result identifying the maximally probable bifurcating unlabeled topology, and it provides a new proof for that result. We present a conjecture for the maximally probable rr-furcating unlabeled topology if labeled histories are tabulated allowing for simultaneous branching events across multiple internal nodes of a tree.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.07426,
  title  = {Maximally probable tree topologies with $r$-furcation},
  author = {Emily H. Dickey and Noah A. Rosenberg},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.07426},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:25:46.529Z