Maximally probable tree topologies with $r$-furcation
Abstract
For a specific rooted labeled tree topology, a labeled history is a sequence of branchings that give rise to that labeled topology as it unfolds over time. Here, for -furcating trees, we use a connection with Huffman trees from information theory to identify maximally probable rooted trees -- unlabeled -furcating topologies whose labelings each have a number of labeled histories greater than or equal to those of all other labeled topologies. Our characterization of the unique maximally probable -furcating unlabeled topology generalizes the Harding--Hammersley--Grimmett result identifying the maximally probable bifurcating unlabeled topology, and it provides a new proof for that result. We present a conjecture for the maximally probable -furcating unlabeled topology if labeled histories are tabulated allowing for simultaneous branching events across multiple internal nodes of a tree.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2602.07426,
title = {Maximally probable tree topologies with $r$-furcation},
author = {Emily H. Dickey and Noah A. Rosenberg},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.07426},
year = {2026}
}