English

JointFM-0.1: A Foundation Model for Multi-Target Joint Distributional Prediction

Machine Learning 2026-04-06 v2 Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 21.1% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.20266,
  title  = {JointFM-0.1: A Foundation Model for Multi-Target Joint Distributional Prediction},
  author = {Stefan Hackmann},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.20266},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T11:30:18.963Z