How long does a lockdown need to be?
Abstract
Social distancing, often in the form of lockdown, has been adopted by many countries as a way to contrast the spreading of COVID-19. We discuss the temporal aspects of social distancing in contrasting an epidemic diffusion. We argue that a strategy based uniquely on social distancing requires to maintain the relative measures for a very long time, while a more articulate strategy, which also uses early detection and prompt isolation, can be both more efficient on reducing the epidemic peak and allow to relax the social distancing measures after a much shorter time. We consider in more detail the situation in Italy, simulating the effect of different strategies through a recently introduced SIR-type epidemiological model. The short answer to the question in the title is: "it depends on what else you do".
Cite
@article{arxiv.2004.11633,
title = {How long does a lockdown need to be?},
author = {Mariano Cadoni and Giuseppe Gaeta},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.11633},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
11 pages, 8 figures