English

How long does a lockdown need to be?

Populations and Evolution 2020-04-27 v1

Abstract

Social distancing, often in the form of lockdown, has been adopted by many countries as a way to contrast the spreading of COVID-19. We discuss the temporal aspects of social distancing in contrasting an epidemic diffusion. We argue that a strategy based uniquely on social distancing requires to maintain the relative measures for a very long time, while a more articulate strategy, which also uses early detection and prompt isolation, can be both more efficient on reducing the epidemic peak and allow to relax the social distancing measures after a much shorter time. We consider in more detail the situation in Italy, simulating the effect of different strategies through a recently introduced SIR-type epidemiological model. The short answer to the question in the title is: "it depends on what else you do".

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2004.11633,
  title  = {How long does a lockdown need to be?},
  author = {Mariano Cadoni and Giuseppe Gaeta},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.11633},
  year   = {2020}
}

Comments

11 pages, 8 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-23T15:04:21.222Z