English

Honest Reporting in Scored Oversight: True-KL0 Property via the Prekopa Principle

Computer Science and Game Theory 2026-05-06 v1

Abstract

We prove the True-KL0_0 property for a parametric family of heterogeneous scoring rules arising in scored elicitation mechanisms (AI oversight, forecasting competitions, expert surveys). A dd-dimensional agent with private type M>1M>1 reports to a principal who evaluates via a power-pp pseudospherical scoring rule, p(d,d+1)p \in (d,d+1); MM captures the agent's information quality relative to a reference. An exact formula G(M,M)=R(M,p,d)U(MM)G(M,M') = -R(M,p,d) U(M|M) shows DSIC unconditionally: honest reporting maximises expected score for every M>1M>1, without distributional assumptions. True-KL0_0, the property R(M,p,d)<1R(M,p,d)<1 for all M>1M>1, d{2,3,4}d \in \{2,3,4\}, p(d,d+1)p \in (d,d+1), gives an explicit gain-magnitude bound: the best misreport is always worse than the honest score itself. Two structural tools drive the proof: (i) a substitution y=(x+1)/(x1)y=(x+1)/(x-1) rewrites the loss integral ILI_L as 1MF(y)(M2y2)d/2dy\int_1^M F(y)(M^2-y^2)^{d/2} dy with MM-independent weight F(y)>0F(y)>0, isolating all MM-dependence in a single convex factor; (ii) Prekopa's theorem on log-concavity preservation establishes that ILI_L is log-concave in MM, the key step in the unimodality proof for RR. For d=2d=2 the log-concavity proof is fully algebraic. For d{3,4}d \in \{3,4\} the Prekopa argument (analytic, covering MMcut(d,p)20M \le M_{cut}(d,p) \le 20) combines with a certified high-precision numerical step on the residual region M[Mcut,20]M \in [M_{cut}, 20], closed by a large-MM asymptotic for M>20M>20. We also characterise the dimensional boundary: True-KL0_0 holds unconditionally for all p(d,d+1)p \in (d,d+1) when d4d \le 4, but fails above a critical threshold pcrit(d)(d,d+1)p_{crit}(d) \in (d,d+1) for d5d \ge 5; for d=5d=5 we locate pcrit(5)(5.5718,5.5750)p_{crit}(5) \in (5.5718, 5.5750) via high-precision mpmath evaluation (half-width 0.0016, not interval-certified).

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.03793,
  title  = {Honest Reporting in Scored Oversight: True-KL0 Property via the Prekopa Principle},
  author = {Lauri Lovén},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.03793},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

23 pages. Manuscript prepared for Annals of Applied Probability. Certificate scripts and reference outputs archived at Zenodo, doi:10.5281/zenodo.19435617