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HAL-MLE Log-Splines Density Estimation (Part I: Univariate)

Statistics Theory 2026-02-19 v1 Computation Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

We study nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of probability densities under a total variation (TV) type penalty, sectional variation norm (also named as Hardy-Krause variation). TV regularization has a long history in regression and density estimation, including results on L2L^2 and KL divergence convergence rates. Here, we revisit this task using the Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) framework. We formulate a HAL-based maximum likelihood estimator (HAL-MLE) using the log-spline link function from \citet{kooperberg1992logspline}, and show that in the univariate setting the bounded sectional variation norm assumption underlying HAL coincides with the classical bounded TV assumption. This equivalence directly connects HAL-MLE to existing TV-penalized approaches such as local adaptive splines \citep{mammen1997locally}. We establish three new theoretical results: (i) the univariate HAL-MLE is asymptotically linear, (ii) it admits pointwise asymptotic normality, and (iii) it achieves uniform convergence at rate n(k+1)/(2k+3)n^{-(k+1)/(2k+3)} up to logarithmic factors for the smoothness order k1k \geq 1. These results extend existing results from \citet{van2017uniform}, which previously guaranteed only uniform consistency without rates when k=0k=0. We will include the uniform convergence for general dimension dd in the follow-up work of this paper. The intention of this paper is to provide a unified framework for the TV-penalized density estimation methods, and to connect the HAL-MLE to the existing TV-penalized methods in the univariate case, despite that the general HAL-MLE is defined for multivariate cases.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.16259,
  title  = {HAL-MLE Log-Splines Density Estimation (Part I: Univariate)},
  author = {Yilong Hou and Zhengpu Zhao and Yi Li and Mark van der Laan},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.16259},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

75 pages

R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:40:57.707Z