English

Gluformer: Transformer-Based Personalized Glucose Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification

Machine Learning 2023-03-08 v2

Abstract

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2209.04526,
  title  = {Gluformer: Transformer-Based Personalized Glucose Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification},
  author = {Renat Sergazinov and Mohammadreza Armandpour and Irina Gaynanova},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.04526},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

5 pages, 2 figures, IEEE ICASSP

R2 v1 2026-06-28T01:02:41.759Z