Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
2014-07-15 v1 General Finance
Abstract
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1407.3652,
title = {Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology},
author = {Lucas Fievet and Zalàn Forrò and Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1407.3652},
year = {2014}
}