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The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately,…
In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…
Accurate crude oil price prediction is crucial for financial decision-making. We propose a novel reservoir computing model for forecasting crude oil prices. It outperforms popular deep learning methods in most scenarios, as demonstrated…
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure.…
The reserve of crude oil in the Arctic area is abundant. Ice melting is making it possible to have intermediate access to the Arctic crude oil and its transportation. A novel compositional data's grey model is proposed in this paper to…
The prognosis for potential resources of abiotic natural gas and petroleum depends critically upon the nature and circumstances of Earth formation. Until recently, that prognosis has been considered solely within the framework of the…
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide and oil production in the U.S. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantly different from the one…
Global oil demand is rapidly increasing and is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day by 2040. Thus, it is vital for hydrocarbon extraction industries to forecast their production to optimize their operations and avoid losses. Big…
Well known oil recovery factor estimation techniques such as analogy, volumetric calculations, material balance, decline curve analysis, hydrodynamic simulations have certain limitations. Those techniques are time-consuming, require…
Measurement-based methane inventories, which involve surveying oil and gas facilities and compiling data to estimate methane emissions, are becoming the gold standard for quantifying emissions. However, there is a current lack of…
An accurate prediction of crude oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to governments, enterprises, and investors. This paper proposes a revised hybrid model built upon empirical mode decomposition (EMD)…
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…
The balancing market for power is designed to account for the difference between predicted supply/demand of electricity and the realised supply/demand. However, increased electrification of society changes the consumption patterns, and…
Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible…
We describe general multilevel Monte Carlo methods that estimate the price of an Asian option monitored at $m$ fixed dates. Our approach yields unbiased estimators with standard deviation $O(\epsilon)$ in $O(m + (1/\epsilon)^{2})$ expected…
The paper has been suggested by two observations: 1) the atmospheric CO$_2$ growth rate is smaller than that ascribed to the emission of fossil fuels combustion, 2) the fossil fuel reserves are finite. The first observation has lead the way…
The shale revolution, driven by advances in horizontal drilling, multi-stage hydraulic fracturing, and cyclic gas injection, has reshaped the oil and gas industry over the past two decades. In the United States, these technologies…
In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…
Equilibrium models for energy markets under uncertain demand and supply have attracted considerable attentions. This paper focuses on modelling crude oil market share under the COVID-19 pandemic using two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We…
Electricity demand and generation have become increasingly unpredictable with the growing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power system. Forecasting electricity supply by fuel mix is crucial for market operation, ensuring…