English

Five parameters are all you need (in $\Lambda$CDM)

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics 2024-08-06 v2

Abstract

The standard cosmological model, with its six independent parameters, successfully describes our observable Universe. One of these parameters, the optical depth to reionization τreio\tau_\mathrm{reio}, represents the scatterings that Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons will experience after decoupling from the primordial plasma as the intergalactic medium transitions from neutral to ionized. τreio\tau_\mathrm{reio} depends on the neutral hydrogen fraction xHIx_\mathrm{HI}, which, in turn, should theoretically depend on cosmology. We present a novel method to establish the missing link between cosmology and reionization timeline using symbolic regression. We discover the timeline has a universal shape well described by the Gompertz mortality law, applicable to any cosmology within our simulated data. Unlike the conventional tanh prescription, our model is asymmetric in time and a good fit to astrophysical constraints on xHIx_\mathrm{HI}. By combining CMB with astrophysical data and marginalizing over astrophysics, we treat τreio\tau_\mathrm{reio} as a derived parameter, tightening its constraint to <3%<3\%. This approach reduces the error on the amplitude of the primordial fluctuations by a factor of 2.3 compared to Planck's PR3 constraint and provides a commanding constraint on the ionization efficiency ζUV=26.92.5+2.1\zeta_\mathrm{UV} = 26.9^{+2.1}_{-2.5}. We expect further improvements in the near term as reionization constraints increase and our understanding of reionization advances.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2405.13680,
  title  = {Five parameters are all you need (in $\Lambda$CDM)},
  author = {Paulo Montero-Camacho and Yin Li and Miles Cranmer},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.13680},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

Correctly accounting for ionization efficiency enables us to place leading constraints by combining our universal asymmetric reionization model with CMB and damping wing constraints on $x_\mathrm{HI}$. By marginalizing over $\zeta_\mathrm{UV}$, we achieve powerful constraints on $A_\mathrm{s}$ and $\tau_\mathrm{reio}$, with uncertainties around 3% for the former

R2 v1 2026-06-28T16:35:47.422Z