English

Evidence for evolving Dark Energy from a new cosmic probe

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics 2025-12-10 v1 High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena

Abstract

The Λ\LambdaCDM concordance cosmological model provides a remarkably successful description of the formation and evolution of structure in the Universe. However, a growing discrepancy between measurements of the expansion rate H0H_0 from the near and distant Universe now appears to be significant at the ~4-7 σ\sigma level. This inconsistency, known as the ``Hubble tension'', has arisen either due to unrecognized systematics in these measurements or new physics beyond the standard model, such as an evolving dark energy equation of state. Modeling ~20-year, multi-band optical light curves for 6992 active galactic nuclei (AGN), we find a tight relation linking the variability amplitude and characteristic timescale to their intrinsic luminosity. This empirical law enables us to construct an AGN-based Hubble diagram to z ~3.5. Joint inference with supernova distances reveals evidence for an evolving dark energy equation of state at the 3.8-3.9 σ\sigma level over constant w models and 4.4-4.8 σ\sigma over Λ\LambdaCDM. Our results establish AGN light curves as a powerful tool for cosmography that could offer a novel pathway to test deviations from the standard Λ\LambdaCDM expansion history.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2512.07931,
  title  = {Evidence for evolving Dark Energy from a new cosmic probe},
  author = {Isaque Dutra and Colin J. Burke and Priyamvada Natarajan and Weixiang Yu},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.07931},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

51 pages, 16 figures, 4 tables; submitted

R2 v1 2026-07-01T08:15:33.548Z