Evidence for evolving Dark Energy from a new cosmic probe
Abstract
The CDM concordance cosmological model provides a remarkably successful description of the formation and evolution of structure in the Universe. However, a growing discrepancy between measurements of the expansion rate from the near and distant Universe now appears to be significant at the ~4-7 level. This inconsistency, known as the ``Hubble tension'', has arisen either due to unrecognized systematics in these measurements or new physics beyond the standard model, such as an evolving dark energy equation of state. Modeling ~20-year, multi-band optical light curves for 6992 active galactic nuclei (AGN), we find a tight relation linking the variability amplitude and characteristic timescale to their intrinsic luminosity. This empirical law enables us to construct an AGN-based Hubble diagram to z ~3.5. Joint inference with supernova distances reveals evidence for an evolving dark energy equation of state at the 3.8-3.9 level over constant w models and 4.4-4.8 over CDM. Our results establish AGN light curves as a powerful tool for cosmography that could offer a novel pathway to test deviations from the standard CDM expansion history.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2512.07931,
title = {Evidence for evolving Dark Energy from a new cosmic probe},
author = {Isaque Dutra and Colin J. Burke and Priyamvada Natarajan and Weixiang Yu},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.07931},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
51 pages, 16 figures, 4 tables; submitted