Doomsday: Two Flaws
Popular Physics
2019-10-01 v2
Abstract
Here I argue that the much-discussed Doomsday Argument (DA) has two flaws. Its mathematical flaw stems from applying frequentist probability or faulty Bayesian inference. Its conceptual flaw is assuming that Copernican uniformity applies to a collection of ranked people and their ideas. I conclude that the DA has no predictive power whatsoever.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1909.11031,
title = {Doomsday: Two Flaws},
author = {Mike Lampton},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1909.11031},
year = {2019}
}
Comments
8 pages, 4 figures