English

Deep follow-up for gravitational-wave inference: a case study with GW151226

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena 2023-04-19 v2 General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology

Abstract

New analyses of gravitational wave events raise questions about the nature of some events. For example, LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA initially determined GW151226 to be a merger with a mass-ratio q0.5q\approx0.5 and effective inspiral spin χeff0.2\chi_{\text{eff}}\approx 0.2. However, recent works offer an alternative picture: GW151226 is a lower-mass-ratio event q0.3q \approx 0.3 with slightly higher spin χeff0.3\chi_{\text{eff}}\approx 0.3. This discrepancy has been challenging to resolve as a wide range of differences are employed for each analysis. This work introduces a ``deep follow-up'' framework to efficiently compute the posterior odds between two different peaks in parameter space. In doing so, we aim to help resolve disputes about the true nature of gravitational-wave events associated with conflicting astrophysical interpretations. Our proposal is not a replacement for standard inference techniques; instead, our method provides a diagnostic tool to understand discrepancies between conflicting results. We demonstrate this method by studying three {qq-χeff\chi_{\text{eff}}} peaks proposed for GW151226. We find the (q0.5,χeff0.2)(q\sim0.5, \chi_{\text{eff}}\sim0.2) interpretation is only slightly preferred over the (q0.3,χeff0.3)(q\sim0.3, \chi_{\text{eff}}\sim0.3) hypothesis with a posterior odds of 1.7±0.4\sim1.7\pm0.4, suggesting that neither of the two peaks can be ruled out. We discuss strategies to produce more reliable parameter estimation studies in gravitational-wave astronomy.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2203.13406,
  title  = {Deep follow-up for gravitational-wave inference: a case study with GW151226},
  author = {Avi Vajpeyi and Rory Smith and Eric Thrane},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.13406},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

9 pages, 3 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-24T10:25:24.935Z