Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CBs) are increasingly prevalent worldwide, posing significant environmental and health concerns. We derive a stoichiometric model describing the population dynamics and toxicity of cyanobacteria in north-temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our model quantifies the hypoxic effects of CBs on fish mortality and evaluates the impact of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) on aquatic macro-invertebrates, phytoplankton, and fish species. Analyzing data from diverse north-temperate lakes with varying physical characteristics, we identify eutrophication as a pivotal catalyst in bloom proliferation. Under predicted warming scenarios coupled with increased eutrophication, peak MC-LR concentrations will surge dramatically, and blooms will occur earlier in the year. We uncover severe bioaccumulation of MC-LR in higher trophic species; the response to CBs among fish at intermediate trophic levels was heterogeneous across lakes. We compare our model against observations from several north-temperate lakes, demonstrating its robustness and applicability. Our insights are critical for informing targeted interventions to mitigate CBs.
@article{arxiv.2410.20757,
title = {Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes},
author = {Jacob Serpico and B. A. Zambrano-Luna and Russell Milne and Christopher M. Heggerud and Alan Hastings and Hao Wang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.20757},
year = {2025}
}