English

Chaos in a spatial epidemic model

Probability 2009-09-01 v4 Chaotic Dynamics

Abstract

We investigate an interacting particle system inspired by the gypsy moth, whose populations grow until they become sufficiently dense so that an epidemic reduces them to a low level. We consider this process on a random 3-regular graph and on the dd-dimensional lattice and torus, with d2d\geq2. On the finite graphs with global dispersal or with a dispersal radius that grows with the number of sites, we prove convergence to a dynamical system that is chaotic for some parameter values. We conjecture that on the infinite lattice with a fixed finite dispersal distance, distant parts of the lattice oscillate out of phase so there is a unique nontrivial stationary distribution.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0812.2248,
  title  = {Chaos in a spatial epidemic model},
  author = {Rick Durrett and Daniel Remenik},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0812.2248},
  year   = {2009}
}

Comments

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP581 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

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