English

Change Point Detection for Functional Autoregressive Processes on the Sphere

Methodology 2025-12-04 v1

Abstract

We introduce a novel framework for change point detection in spherical functional autoregressive (SPHAR) processes, enabling the identification of structural breaks in spatio-temporal random fields on the sphere. Our LASSO-regularized estimator, based on penalized dynamic programming in the harmonic domain, operates without knowledge of the number or locations of change points and offers non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees. This approach provides a new tool for analyzing nonstationary phenomena on the sphere, relevant to climate science, cosmology, and beyond.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2512.03255,
  title  = {Change Point Detection for Functional Autoregressive Processes on the Sphere},
  author = {Federica Spoto and Alessia Caponera and Pierpaolo Brutti},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.03255},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T08:06:41.725Z