English

Can a single migrant per generation rescue a dying population?

Probability 2023-04-14 v1

Abstract

We introduce a population model to test the hypothesis that even a single migrant per generation may rescue a dying population. Let (ck)(c_k) be a sequence of real numbers in (0,1)(0,1). Let XnX_n be a size of the population at time n0n\geq 0. Then, Xn+1=XnYn+1+1X_{n+1}=X_n - Y_{n+1}+1, where the conditional distribution of Yn+1Y_{n+1} given Xn=kX_n=k is a binomial random variable with parameters (k,c(k))(k ,c(k)). We assume that limkkc(k)=ρ\lim_{k\to\infty}kc(k)=\rho exists. If ρ<1\rho<1 the process is transient with speed 1ρ1-\rho (so yes a single migrant per generation may rescue a dying population!) and if ρ>1\rho>1 the process is positive recurrent. In the critical case ρ=1\rho=1 the process is recurrent or transient according to how kc(k)k c(k) converges to 11. When ρ=0\rho=0 and under some regularity conditions, the support of the increments is eventually finite.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2304.06478,
  title  = {Can a single migrant per generation rescue a dying population?},
  author = {Iddo Ben-Ari and Rinaldo B. Schinazi},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.06478},
  year   = {2023}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T10:04:24.753Z