Benefits and limitations of a new hydraulic performance model

Purpose: Performance models are important tools for coaches and athletes to optimise competition outcomes or training schedules. A recently published hydraulic performance model has been reported to outperform established work-balance models in predicting recovery during intermittent exercise. The new hydraulic model was optimised to predict exercise recovery dynamics. In this work, we hypothesised that the benefits of the model come at the cost of inaccurate predictions of metabolic responses to exercise such as $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$. Methods: Hydraulic model predictions were compared to breath-by-breath $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$ data from 25 constant high-intensity exercise tests of 5 participants (age $32\pm7.8$ years, weight $73.6 \pm 5.81$ kg, $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2\mathrm{max}} \; 3.59 \pm 0.62$ L/min). Each test was performed to volitional exhaustion on a cycle ergometer with a duration between 2 and 12 min. The comparison focuses on the onset of $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$ kinetics. Results: On average, the hydraulic model predicted peak $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$ during exercise $216\pm113$~s earlier than observed in the data. The new hydraulic model also did not predict the so-called $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$ slow component and made the unrealistic assumption that there is no $\dot{V}_{\mathrm{O}_2}$ at the onset of exercise. Conclusion: While the new hydraulic model may be a powerful tool for predicting energy recovery, it should not be used to predict metabolic responses during high-intensity exercise. The present study contributes towards a more holistic picture of the benefits and limitations of the new hydraulic model. Data and code are published as open source.