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ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guarantees

Methodology 2025-01-09 v1 Statistics Theory Statistics Theory

Abstract

We introduce ART, a distribution-free and model-agnostic framework for changepoint detection that provides finite-sample guarantees. ART transforms independent observations into real-valued scores via a symmetric function, ensuring exchangeability in the absence of changepoints. These scores are then ranked and aggregated to detect distributional changes. The resulting test offers exact Type-I error control, agnostic to specific distributional or model assumptions. Moreover, ART seamlessly extends to multi-scale settings, enabling robust multiple changepoint estimation and post-detection inference with finite-sample error rate control. By locally ranking the scores and performing aggregations across multiple prespecified intervals, ART identifies changepoint intervals and refines subsequent inference while maintaining its distribution-free and model-agnostic nature. This adaptability makes ART as a reliable and versatile tool for modern changepoint analysis, particularly in high-dimensional data contexts and applications leveraging machine learning methods.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2501.04475,
  title  = {ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guarantees},
  author = {Xiaolong Cui and Haoyu Geng and Guanghui Wang and Zhaojun Wang and Changliang Zou},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.04475},
  year   = {2025}
}