A non-autonomous system is proposed to model the seasonal pattern of dengue fever. We found that an approximate threshold condition for infection persistence describes all possible behavior of the system. As far as we know, the kind of analysis here proposed is entirely new. No precise mathematical theorems are demonstrated but we give enough numerical evidence to support the conclusions.
Cite
@article{arxiv.nlin/0501013,
title = {An approximate threshold condition for a non-autonomous system: an application to a vector-borne infection},
author = {F. A. B. Coutinho and M. N. Burattini and L. F. Lopez and E. Massad},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:nlin/0501013},
year = {2007}
}