Tracking rates of random walks

We show that simple random walks on (non-trivial) relatively hyperbolic groups stay $O(\log(n))$-close to geodesics, where $n$ is the number of steps of the walk. Using similar techniques we show that simple random walks in mapping class groups stay $O(\sqrt{n\log(n)})$-close to geodesics and hierarchy paths. Along the way, we also prove a refinement of the result that mapping class groups have quadratic divergence. An application of our theorem for relatively hyperbolic groups is that random triangles in non-trivial relatively hyperbolic groups are $O(\log(n))$-thin, random points have $O(\log(n))$-small Gromov product and that in many cases the average Dehn function is subasymptotic to the Dehn function.