English

Time-dependent balls and bins model with positive feedback

Probability 2025-07-17 v2

Abstract

Balls and bins models are classical probabilistic models where balls are added to bins at random according to a certain rule. The balls and bins model with feedback is a non-linear generalisation of the P\'olya urn, where the probability of a new ball choosing a bin with mm balls is proportional to mαm^{\alpha}, with α\alpha being the feedback parameter. It is known that if the feedback is positive (i.e. α>1\alpha>1) then the model is monopolistic: there is a finite time after which one of the bins will receive all incoming balls. We consider a time-dependent version of this model, where σn\sigma_n independent balls are added at time nn instead of just one. We show that if α>1\alpha>1 then one of the bins gets all but a negligible number of balls, and identify a phase transition in the growth of (σn)(\sigma_n) between the monopolistic and non-monopolistic behaviour. We also describe the critical regime, where the probability of monopoly is strictly between zero and one. Finally, we show that in the feedback-less case α=1\alpha=1 no dominance occurs, that is, each bin gets a non-negligible proportion of balls eventually. This is in sharp contrast with a similar model where new balls added at time nn are all placed in the same bin rather than independently.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1809.02221,
  title  = {Time-dependent balls and bins model with positive feedback},
  author = {Nadia Sidorova},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1809.02221},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T03:57:20.592Z