The Hilb-vs-Quot Conjecture

Let $R$ be the complete local ring of a complex plane curve germ and $S$ its normalization. We propose a "Hilb-vs-Quot" conjecture relating the virtual weight polynomials of the Hilbert schemes of $R$ to those of the Quot schemes that parametrize $R$-submodules of $S$. By relating the Quot side to a type of compactified Picard scheme, we show that our conjecture generalizes a conjecture of Cherednik's, and that it would relate the perverse filtration on the cohomology of the Picard side to a more elementary filtration. Next, we propose a Quot version of the Oblomkov-Rasmussen-Shende conjecture, relating parabolic refinements of our Quot schemes to Khovanov-Rozansky link homology. It becomes equivalent to the original version under (refined) Hilb-vs-Quot, but can also be strengthened to incorporate polynomial actions and $y$-ification. For germs $y^n = x^d$, where $n$ is either coprime to or divides $d$, we prove the Quot version of ORS through combinatorics. When $n = 3$ and $3 \nmid d$, we deduce Hilb-vs-Quot by an asymptotic argument, and hence, establish the original ORS conjecture for these germs.