The Gauss' Bayes Factor
History and Overview
2020-12-10 v2 Statistics Theory
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
History and Philosophy of Physics
Other Statistics
Statistics Theory
Abstract
In 'Theoria motus corporum coelestium in sectionibus conicis solem ambientum' Gauss presents, as a theorem and with emphasis, the rule to update the ratio of probabilities of complementary hypotheses, in the light of an observed event which could be due to either of them. Although he focused on a priori equally probable hypotheses, in order to solve the problem on which he was interested in, the theorem can be easily extended to the general case. But, curiously, I have not been able to find references to his result in the literature.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2003.10878,
title = {The Gauss' Bayes Factor},
author = {Giulio D'Agostini},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.10878},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
13 pages, 2 figures (Version 2 benefits of editorial improvements)