The complexity of spherical p-spin models - a second moment approach

Recently, Auffinger, Ben Arous, and \v{C}ern\'y initiated the study of critical points of the Hamiltonian in the spherical pure $p$-spin spin glass model, and established connections between those and several notions from the physics literature. Denoting the number of critical values less than $Nu$ by $\mbox{Crt}_{N}(u)$, they computed the asymptotics of $\frac{1}{N}\log(\mathbb{E}\mbox{Crt}_{N}(u))$, as $N$, the dimension of the sphere, goes to $\infty$. We compute the asymptotics of the corresponding second moment and show that, for $p\geq3$ and sufficiently negative $u$, it matches the first moment: $$\mathbb{E}\left\{ \left(\mbox{Crt}_{N}\left(u\right)\right)^{2}\right\} /\left(\vphantom{\left(\mbox{Crt}_{N}\left(u\right)\right)^{2}}\mathbb{E}\left\{ \mbox{Crt}_{N}\left(u\right)\right\} \right)^{2}\to1.$$ As an immediate consequence we obtain that $\mbox{Crt}_{N}(u)/\mathbb{E}\{ \mbox{Crt}_{N}(u)\} \to 1$, in $L^2$ and thus in probability. For any $u$ for which $\mathbb{E}\mbox{Crt}_{N}(u)$ does not tend to $0$ we prove that the moments match on an exponential scale.