Testing the Constancy of Type Ia Supernova Luminosities with Gaussian Process
Abstract
Type Ia supernovae (SNe~Ia) are central to studies of cosmic expansion, under the assumption that their absolute magnitude does not evolve with redshift. Even small drifts in brightness can bias cosmological parameters such as and . Here we test this assumption using a non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) reconstruction of the expansion history from cosmic chronometer data, which provides a model-independent baseline distance modulus, . To propagate uncertainties, we draw Monte Carlo realizations of from the GP posterior and evaluate them on a Chebyshev grid, which improves numerical stability and quadrature accuracy. Supernova observations are then compared to this baseline through residuals, , and their derivatives. Applying this method to Pantheon+ (1701 SNe~Ia) and DES 5YR (435 SNe~Ia), we find that SNe~Ia are consistent with being standard candles within , though both datasets exhibit localized departures: near in Pantheon+ and at -- in DES. The presence of similar features in two independent surveys suggests they are not purely statistical. Our results point toward a possible non-monotonic luminosity evolution, likely reflecting different physical drivers at different epochs, and highlight the need for a deeper astrophysical understanding of SN~Ia populations.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2509.19494,
title = {Testing the Constancy of Type Ia Supernova Luminosities with Gaussian Process},
author = {Akshay Rana},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.19494},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
14 Pages, 04 Figures, Under review