Testing Ambiguity and Machina Preferences Within a Quantum-theoretic Framework for Decision-making
Abstract
The Machina thought experiments pose to major non-expected utility models challenges that are similar to those posed by the Ellsberg thought experiments to subjective expected utility theory (SEUT). We test human choices in the `Ellsberg three-color example', confirming typical ambiguity aversion patterns, and the `Machina 50/51 and reflection examples', partially confirming the preferences hypothesized by Machina. Then, we show that a quantum-theoretic framework for decision-making under uncertainty recently elaborated by some of us allows faithful modeling of all data on the Ellsberg and Machina paradox situations. In the quantum-theoretic framework subjective probabilities are represented by quantum probabilities, while quantum state transformations enable representations of ambiguity aversion and subjective attitudes toward it.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1706.02168,
title = {Testing Ambiguity and Machina Preferences Within a Quantum-theoretic Framework for Decision-making},
author = {Diederik Aerts and Suzette Geriente and Catarina Moreira and Sandro Sozzo},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1706.02168},
year = {2018}
}
Comments
19 pages, 1 figure, standard LaTex. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1612.08583, arXiv:1510.09058