Significance Tests in Climate Science
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2016-08-24 v1 Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Applications
Abstract
A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the 'reality' of a given result.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1003.2934,
title = {Significance Tests in Climate Science},
author = {Maarten H. P. Ambaum},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1003.2934},
year = {2016}
}
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9 pages