English

rodeo: Probabilistic Methods of Parameter Inference for Ordinary Differential Equations

Computation 2025-06-30 v1

Abstract

Parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) plays a fundamental role in the analysis of dynamical systems. Generally lacking closed-form solutions, ODEs are traditionally approximated using deterministic solvers. However, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that probabilistic ODE solvers produce more reliable parameter estimates by better accounting for numerical uncertainty. Here we present rodeo, a Python library providing a fast, lightweight, and extensible interface to a broad class of probabilistic ODE solvers, along with several associated methods for parameter inference. At its core, rodeo provides a probabilistic solver that scales linearly in both the number of evaluation points and system variables. Furthermore, by leveraging state-of-the-art automatic differentiation (AD) and just-in-time (JIT) compiling techniques, rodeo is shown across several examples to provide fast, accurate, and scalable parameter inference for a variety of ODE systems.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2506.21776,
  title  = {rodeo: Probabilistic Methods of Parameter Inference for Ordinary Differential Equations},
  author = {Mohan Wu and Martin Lysy},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.21776},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

50 pages, 5 figures. Submitted to Journal of Statistical Software

R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:35:29.183Z