Optimal Learning under Robustness and Time-Consistency
Abstract
We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can be postponed, at a per-unit-time cost, in order to observe a signal that provides information about an unknown parameter. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved in closed-form, with a focus on two specific settings: Ellsberg's two-urn thought experiment expanded to allow learning before the choice of bets, and a robust version of the classical problem of sequential testing of two simple hypotheses about the unknown drift of a Wiener process. In both cases, the link between robustness and the demand for learning is studied.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1708.01890,
title = {Optimal Learning under Robustness and Time-Consistency},
author = {Larry G. Epstein and Shaolin Ji},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1708.01890},
year = {2019}
}
Comments
35 pages