Open Dynamical Systems as Coalgebras for Polynomial Functors, with Application to Predictive Processing

We present categories of open dynamical systems with general time evolution as categories of coalgebras opindexed by polynomial interfaces, and show how this extends the coalgebraic framework to capture common scientific applications such as ordinary differential equations, open Markov processes, and random dynamical systems. We then extend Spivak's operad Org to this setting, and construct associated monoidal categories whose morphisms represent hierarchical open systems; when their interfaces are simple, these categories supply canonical comonoid structures. We exemplify these constructions using the 'Laplace doctrine', which provides dynamical semantics for active inference, and indicate some connections to Bayesian inversion and coalgebraic logic.