NFL Draft Modelling: Loss Functional Analysis
Abstract
In the NFL draft, teams must strategically balance immediate player impact against long-term value, presenting a complex optimization challenge for draft capital management. This paper introduces a framework for evaluating the fairness and efficiency of draft pick trades using norm-based loss functions. Draft pick valuations are modelled by the Weibull distribution. Utilizing these valuation techniques, the research identifies key trade-offs between aggressive, immediate-impact strategies and conservative, risk-averse approaches. Ultimately, this framework serves as a valuable analytical tool for assessing NFL draft trade fairness and value distribution, aiding team decision-makers and enriching insights within the sports analytics community.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2504.07291,
title = {NFL Draft Modelling: Loss Functional Analysis},
author = {Tanmay Grandhisiri},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.07291},
year = {2025}
}